MARC details
| 000 -LEADER |
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| fixed length control field |
03591cam a2200397 i 4500 |
| 001 - CONTROL NUMBER |
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| control field |
18605242 |
| 003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER |
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| control field |
OSt |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION |
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| control field |
20241114062527.0 |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION |
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| fixed length control field |
150506s2015 nyua b 001 0 eng |
| 010 ## - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CONTROL NUMBER |
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| LC control number |
2015007310 |
| 020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER |
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| International Standard Book Number |
9781847947154 |
| 020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER |
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| Canceled/invalid ISBN |
9780804136709 (ebook) |
| 040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE |
|---|
| Original cataloging agency |
DLC |
| Language of cataloging |
eng |
| Description conventions |
rda |
| Modifying agency |
DLC |
| 042 ## - AUTHENTICATION CODE |
|---|
| Authentication code |
pcc |
| 082 00 - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER |
|---|
| Classification number |
303.49 |
| Edition number |
23 |
| 100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
Tetlock, Philip E. |
| Fuller form of name |
(Philip Eyrikson), |
| Dates associated with a name |
1954- |
| Relator term |
author. |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT |
|---|
| Title |
Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction / |
| Statement of responsibility, etc. |
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner. |
| 250 ## - EDITION STATEMENT |
|---|
| Edition statement |
First edition. |
| 264 #1 - PRODUCTION, PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, MANUFACTURE, AND COPYRIGHT NOTICE |
|---|
| Place of production, publication, distribution, manufacture |
Gurugram: |
| Name of producer, publisher, distributor, manufacturer |
Penguin Random House, |
| Date of production, publication, distribution, manufacture, or copyright notice |
2016. |
| 300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION |
|---|
| Extent |
340 pages : |
| Other physical details |
illustrations ; |
| Dimensions |
25 cm |
| 336 ## - CONTENT TYPE |
|---|
| Content type term |
text |
| Source |
rdacontent |
| 337 ## - MEDIA TYPE |
|---|
| Media type term |
unmediated |
| Source |
rdamedia |
| 338 ## - CARRIER TYPE |
|---|
| Carrier type term |
volume |
| Source |
rdacarrier |
| 504 ## - BIBLIOGRAPHY, ETC. NOTE |
|---|
| Bibliography, etc. note |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index. |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. |
|---|
| Summary, etc. |
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"-- |
| Assigning source |
Provided by publisher. |
| 650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting. |
| Source of heading or term |
bisacsh |
| 650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
SOCIAL SCIENCE / Future Studies. |
| Source of heading or term |
bisacsh |
| 650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology. |
| Source of heading or term |
bisacsh |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
Economic forecasting. |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
Forecasting. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
Gardner, Dan, |
| Dates associated with a name |
1968- |
| 856 42 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS |
|---|
| Materials specified |
Cover image |
| Uniform Resource Identifier |
<a href="9780804136693.jpg">9780804136693.jpg</a> |
| 906 ## - LOCAL DATA ELEMENT F, LDF (RLIN) |
|---|
| a |
7 |
| b |
cbc |
| c |
orignew |
| d |
1 |
| e |
ecip |
| f |
20 |
| g |
y-gencatlg |
| 942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA) |
|---|
| Source of classification or shelving scheme |
Dewey Decimal Classification |
| Koha item type |
General Book |
| Suppress in OPAC |
No |
